I Don't Feel Very Good

I was recently reminded that my young self loved games and loved winning. So much so that whenever it became apparent I was going to lose, I was known to exclaim, “I don’t feel very good!” in an attempt to end the game early.

The above picture features me, on the far left, ‘not feeling very good’ after a competitive easter egg hunt with my cousins. I eventually learned that losing, being wrong, and not feeling good about unpleasant things are all a part of life. I learned to lose well, but the “I don’t feel very good!” line remains infamous in our family.

The image below takes us back to 2022 and early 2023, when a recession felt inevitable. Pundits, including J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and even The Fed, claimed that a recession was on its way.

But then time continued to pass… with no recession. US stocks were up 7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and another 7% in the first quarter of 2023, and by the summer, each of the previously mentioned sources said something along the lines of, “We were wrong.”

Otherwise known as “I don’t feel very good!”.

It would feel good to be right in all your predictions. Or to have an advisor, trusted source, or news channel that was right in all of their predictions. But no one is. Even if they display the confidence that makes you think they just might be.

Confidence is an interesting thing. It’s important when deserved but dangerous when hollow. Headlines surround us with confident forecasts. However, these forecasts are precisely what the most highly regarded financial professionals have spoken out against. Take the words of Benjamin Graham, John Templeton, Peter Lynch, and Warren Buffet, for example:

“I am skeptical about stock market forecasting by anybody, and particularly by bankers.”

“In all my 55 years on Wall Street, I was never able to say when the market would go up or down. Nor was I able to find anybody on Earth whose opinion I would value on the subject of when it would go up and down.”

“I deal in facts, not forecasting the future.”

“I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don’t have the faintest idea.”

Early in my career, my manager encouraged me to build my professional confidence. He explained that the way I was aware of the critical nature of guidance around money and, therefore, careful with the advice I gave was something he looked for in his employees, as opposed to the hollow confidence that is all too common in the financial industry.

I appreciate that early career coaching to this day. I wasn’t told, “Be confident! Be confident because this is people’s money, and people are looking for certainty!” Instead, I was reminded of the expertise I had built and encouraged to lean into that—to lean into what I know and never shy away from stating what I don’t know.

I don’t know when the next recession will occur or what event will be the next tipping point for the markets. No one does.

What I do know is the history of markets. That 74% of years since 1926 have ended with positive returns in the US stock market, despite the ever-present volatility that investors endure each year.

I am grateful to have a career where I can help people confidently plan for their future while accounting for both what we know and what we don’t know. There are changes, and there is volatility, but there is no cycle of predicting and adjusting predictions. No “I don’t feel very good!” moments. Those are still limited to the occasional game.